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Lee-Carter mortality forecasting: a multi-country comparison of variants and extensions
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Booth, Heather Hyndman, Rob J. Tickle, Leonie Jong, P. De Zaandam |
| Copyright Year | 2006 |
| Abstract | We compare the short- to medium-term accuracy of five variants or extensions of the Lee-Carter method for mortality forecasting. These include the original Lee-Carter, the Lee-Miller and Booth-Maindonald-Smith variants, and the more flexible Hyndman-Ullah and De Jong-Tickle extensions. These methods are compared by applying them to sex-specific populations of 10 developed countries using data for 1986-2000 for evaluation. All variants and extensions are more accurate than the original Lee-Carter method for forecasting log death rates, by up to 61%. However, accuracy in log death rates does not necessarily translate into accuracy in life expectancy. There are no significant differences among the five methods in forecast accuracy for life expectancy. |
| Starting Page | 289 |
| Ending Page | 310 |
| Page Count | 22 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9 |
| Volume Number | 15 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2006/wp13-06.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www-personal.buseco.monash.edu.au/~hyndman/papers/LCcomparison.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/9/15-9.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/Depts/EBS/Pubs/WPapers/2006/wp13-06.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://demography.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/sod/publications/working-papers/101.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.robjhyndman.com/papers/LCcomparison.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://openresearch-repository.anu.edu.au/bitstream/10440/310/1/Booth_Lee-Carter2006.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/9/15-9.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://robjhyndman.com/papers/LCcomparison.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://robjhyndman.com/papers/LCcomparison.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.monash.edu/business/econometrics-and-business-statistics/research/publications/ebs/wp13-06.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.9 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
