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A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on 1 low flows 2 3
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Laaha, Gregor Parajka, Juraj Viglione, Alberto Koffler, Daniel Haslinger, Klaus Schoener, Wolfgang Zehetgruber Blöschl, Günter |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | 15 The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future 16 low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the 17 framework three pillars are chosen: (a) Extrapolation of observed low flow trends into the 18 future; (b) Rainfall-runoff projections based on climate scenarios; (c) Extrapolation of changing 19 stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall-runoff modelling. 20 Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined 21 by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. 22 The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the 23 certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four 24 example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in Central Europe. 25 In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios 26 yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north 27 of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the South 28 and Southeast, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is 29 disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the 30 consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a 31 systematic framework of combining different sources of information aiming at more robust 32 projections than obtained from each pillar alone. 33 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/12/13069/2015/hess-2015-477-manuscript-version4.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/12/13069/2015/hess-2015-477-manuscript-version3.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
