Otimização da operação de um reservatório para controle de cheias com base na previsão de vazão

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Bravo, J. M.
Copyright Year	2006
Abstract	This study assesses incremental benefits that might be obtained from the use of short-term and long-term streamflow forecasts in the operation of a multipurpose reservoir focusing in two water uses: flood control and power generation. The Tres Marias dam, in the Sao Francisco river basin, was selected for study, primarily because of the availability of short-term forecast data from previous work. This short-term forecast was calculated with a distributed hydrological model that uses precipitation forecast generated by ETA regional model as input data, and it will be referred to as real short-term forecast in this text. In order to quantify the benefits of forecasts two simulation models of reservoir operation were developed. The first model defines the reservoir operation without using forecasts. Meantime, the second model considers available forecast in the operation. The time step used in simulation was one day. Operation rules, in the form of linear rule-curves were used in the reservoir operation with and without forecast. The rule-curves were optimized through a parameterization, simulation and optimization approach with the SCE-UA algorithm (Duan et al., 1992). The results with “perfects” forecasts (considering observed flows as a forecast) show that can exist a 8% improvement in hydropower benefits (representing $4,77 million by year) if longterm forecasts are considered with two months lead time, and the operation is set with this lead time. The operation based in short-term forecasts has less benefits, but still significant. For example, a short-term forecast with a 12 days lead time made every week has an incremental hydropower benefit of 4,45%, representing $2,75 million by year. Those benefits were achieved without loss of performance in the flood control. The benefits achieved with real short-term forecasts were lower than those with perfects short-term forecasts, as expected. However, with the real short-term forecasts still were achieved benefits that could be as higher as half than those expected with the perfect flow forecasts and, consequently, the reduction of increase benefit is relatively small in the period analyzed. The results achieved are promising and show evident advantages in using precipitation forecasts to perform streamflow forecasts in the operation of a multipurpose reservoir when is also associated to the systemic optimization of the reservoir operation.
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Alternate Webpage(s)	https://lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/handle/10183/7654/000550771.pdf;sequence=1
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article