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Sécheresses des sols en France et changement climatique : Résultats et applications du projet ClimSec
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel Kitova, N. Blanchard, Michèle Vidal, Jean-Philippe Martin, Éric Dandin, Philippe |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Abstract | Le projet ClimSec a etudie l'impact du changement climatique sur la secheresse et sur l'eau du sol en France en s'appuyant sur la reanalyse de la chaine hydrometeorologique SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) depuis 1958. Des indices standardises, " Standardized Precipitation Index " (SPI) et " Standardized Soil Wetness Index " (SSWI), ont ete utilises pour caracteriser les differents types de secheresse (meteorologique et agricole) a partir d'une climatologie de 50 ans. En 2011, ces indices ont ete adaptes pour le suivi hydrologique operationnel et pour repondre aux besoins de qualification de la secheresse printaniere exceptionnelle de cette annee. Ces indices ont egalement ete calcules en climat futur a partir des differentes projections climatiques regionalisees disponibles en metropole. Trois experiences particulieres en matiere de scenarios socio-economiques, de modeles climatiques et de methodes de descente d'echelle ont permis d'apprecier l'importance relative des differentes sources d'incertitude dans l'evolution attendue des secheresses. Ces donnees ont aussi permis de preciser les conditions de l'evolution temporelle des secheresses, avec une aggravation plus rapide et plus intense des evenements lies au deficit d'humidite du sol plutot qu'au deficit de precipitation. Les projections climatiques indiquent surtout que notre pays risque de connaitre, lors de la seconde moitie du XXIe siecle, des secheresses quasi continues et de grande intensite, totalement inconnues dans le climat actuel. / The ClimSec project has studied the impact of climate change on drought and soil water over France by using a climatological reanalysis of the SAFRAN/ISBA/MODCOU suite (SIM) since 1958. Standardized drought indices for precipitation (SPI) and soil moisture (SSWI) have been defined for research purposes to characterize the various kinds of events. They were then adapted for operational hydrological monitoring and used to assess the exceptional drought of spring 2011. These indices were also calculated for future climate from the various regionalized climate projections available over France. Three particular experiments in socio-economic scenarios, climate models and downscaling methods have been run to estimate the relative importance of the different uncertainties in drought evolution. The assessment of 21st century drought evolution shows a much earlier and more intense occurrence of changes for agricultural droughts linked to soil moisture deficits than for meteorological drought linked with precipitation deficits. Climate projections suggest that France could be affected on the second half of the 21st century by a quasi-continuous drought with a strong intensity, totally unknown in present climate. |
| Starting Page | 21 |
| Ending Page | 30 |
| Page Count | 10 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.4267/2042/47512 |
| Volume Number | 78 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://hal-meteofrance.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00757327/document |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.4267/2042%2F47512 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
