Ajuste da curva de demanda em função do preço para a melhoria de métodos de previsão de demanda de séries temporais

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Bitencourt, Pedro Henrique Piussi
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	This paper proposes the inclusion of the variable price as an adjustment factor in the demand curve. As methodology, the price at each point of the historical demand data is analyzed and then it is observed its relationship with the demand. An analysis of price elasticity of the demand is then generated. The demand data is adjusted for a single price, which is calculated by the tool SOLVER. For this adjustment, the demand values of the original series are modified according to the variation between the fixed price and the original price (observed in the price elasticity analysis). This curve is used as an input to the time series methods of the demand forecasting. In consequence, the prediction results are corrected according to the desired price. Demand forecasts are generated from the original curve and the curve adjusted by the price. The predictions from each curve, unadjusted and adjusted, were compared by using the coefficients of determination R2 adjusted and MAPE. It was found that the predictions in the adjusted curves in all studied models have obtained better values in the coefficients.
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Alternate Webpage(s)	https://lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/handle/10183/103736/000937169.pdf;jsessionid=5653CF816F9907FC5D1562CA68EDF444?sequence=1
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article