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1 Risk assessment and uncertainty in natural hazards
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Rougier, Jonathan Hill, Lisa J. |
| Copyright Year | 2013 |
| Abstract | This edited volume concerns the topical and challenging field of uncertainty and risk assessment in natural hazards. In particular, we argue for the transparent quantification of risk and uncertainty so that informed choices can be made, both to reduce the risks associated with natural hazards, and to evaluate different mitigation strategies. A defensible framework for decision-making under uncertainty becomes a vital tool in what has been termed the era of ‘post-normal science’, wherein ‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’ (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991; also see Hulme, 2009). Natural hazards, like the environmental systems of which they form a part, are rich and complex, and full of interactions and nonlinearities. Our understanding of their nature and our ability to predict their behaviour are limited. Nevertheless, due to their impact on the things that we value, the effects of natural hazards should be managed, which is to say that choices must be made, despite our limited understanding. As such, it is crucial when scientists contribute to decision-making or the formation of policy that their uncertainties are transparently assessed, honestly reported and effectively communicated, and available for scrutiny by all interested parties. In this bookwe explore the current state-of-the-art in risk assessment and uncertainty for the major natural hazards. As we acknowledge, some uncertainty assessment methods require a level of scholarship and technique that can be hard for hazards experts to acquire on top of the demands of their own discipline. Most risk assessments and uncertainty analyses in natural hazards have been conducted by hazard experts, who, while acknowledging the full range of uncertainties, have tended to focus on the more tractable sources of uncertainty, and to accumulate all other sources of uncertainty into a lumped margin-for-error term. We would not claim that all sources of natural hazards uncertainty can be treated within a formal statistical framework, but we do claim that some very large uncertainties currently accumulating in the margin for error can be treated explicitly using modern statistical methods, and that the resulting uncertainty assessment will be more transparent, defensible and credible. In this opening chapter, we consider the role of the natural hazards scientist during periods of quiescence, imminent threat, the hazard event itself and recovery, all of which present considerable challenges for the assessment and communication of uncertainty and risk. These topics are explored to varying degrees in the chapters that follow. First, let us examine the scale of the problem. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://assets.cambridge.org/97811070/06195/excerpt/9781107006195_excerpt.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
