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Prospective Longevity Risk Analysis
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Martin, Christopher James Hornsby, Christopher Coburn, Allison |
| Copyright Year | 2010 |
| Abstract | Mortality improvement has traditionally been analyzed using an array of statistical methods, and extrapolated to make future actuarial projections. This paper presents a prospective forward-looking approach to longevity risk analysis which is based on stochastic modelling of the underlying causes of mortality improvement, due to changes in lifestyle, health environment, and advances in medical science. The rationale for this approach is similar to that adopted for modelling other types of dynamic insurance risk, e.g. natural catastrophes, where risk analysts construct a stochastic ensemble of events that might happen in the future, rather than rely on a retrospective analysis of the non-stationary and comparatively brief historical record. Another feature of prospective longevity risk analysis, which is shared with catastrophe risk modelling, is the objective of capturing vulnerability data at a high resolution, to maximize the benefit of detailed modelling capability down to individual risk factor level. Already, the use by insurers of postcode data for UK flood risk assessment has carried over to UK mortality assessment. Powered by fast numerical computation and parameterized with high quality geographical data, hydrological models of flood risk have superseded the traditional statistical insurance loss models. A decade later, medically-based computational models of mortality risk can be expected to gain increasing prominence in longevity risk management. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://static.rms.com/email/documents/liferisks/papers/prospective-longevity-risk-analysis.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Array data structure CDISC SDTM Risk Assessment Terminology Catastrophe theory Computation Computational model Design rationale Display resolution Entity Name Part Qualifier - adopted Extrapolation IT risk management Insurance Carriers Medicine Numerical analysis Projections and Predictions Prospective search Sensorineural Hearing Loss (disorder) Stationary process Stochastic modelling (insurance) |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
