A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Gori, Luca Lupi, Enrico Manfredi, Piero Sodini, Mauro
Copyright Year	2020
Abstract	According to the conventional theory of the demogr aphic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger for ferti lity decline and eventually sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/A IDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, by dramatically reversing (in high HI V-prevalence countries) the long-term positive trend in life expectancies. Despite SSA is sufferin g a delayed and slowed fertility transition compared to other world’s regions and despite the e xistence of a robust empirical evidence showing the potential for a fertility reversal in countries with severe HIV epidemics, there seems to be a lit tle concern amongst international organisations about t he ultimate impact that HIV might have on SSA fertility. This work builds on a Unified Growth The ory model supporting the existing evidence of a HIV-triggered fertility reversal in SSA countries. The model predicts the reversal because of the fall in education and human capital investments due to t he drop in life expectancy for young adults. This mechanism eventually breaks down the virtuous circle promoting the switch quantity-toquality of children. Results suggest that the curre nt evidence on the stall in fertility decline and t he declining education in high HIV-prevalent SSA count ries should be seriously taken into consideration to prioritise international intervent io s.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	31
Page Count	31
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
DOI	10.1017/dem.2019.21
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://lagv2018.sciencesconf.org/192653/document
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.21
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article