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Demand forecasting in food retail : a comparison between the Holt-Winters and ARIMA models
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Veiga, Claudimar Pereira Da Veiga, Cássia Rita Pereira Da Anderson Catapan Tortato, Ubiratã Silva, Wesley Vieira Da |
| Copyright Year | 2014 |
| Abstract | For business operations in retail companies which work with food products with short life cycle and perishables, the accuracy of forecast is of crucial importance because of the volatile demand pattern, influenced by an environment of rapid and dynamic response. In several studies in the literature, the choice of the most suitable forecasting model remains a central concern. In this context, this article aims to compare the performances between ARIMA and Holt-Winters (HW) models for the prediction of a time series formed by a group of perishable dairy products. As performance measures, metric analysis of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Theil inequality index (U-Theil) were used. In this study, the HW model obtained better results regarding the performance metrics, having a better adjustment and capturing the linear behavior of the series. Key-words:demand forecasting, ARIMA, Holt-Winters, food products |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.wseas.org/multimedia/journals/economics/2014/a085707-276.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
