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Testing Democratic Peace Theory: A New Approach with Application to The Israeli-Palestinian Conict
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Brandt, Patrick T. Freeman, John Richardson |
| Copyright Year | 2004 |
| Abstract | International relations scholars have developed many theories to describe the evolution and existence of international conicts. One important idea is the \democratic peace," which argues that democracies are less likely to engage in conict with each other. However, much of the work testing democratic peace theory has been static and does not address dynamic, causal mechanisms by which democracy fosters peace. We address this shortcoming by proposing a new, disaggregated, research design for analyzing the complex causal dynamics of international conicts. This research design uses Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models. We then discuss how these models can be used to evaluate both in and out of sample predictions and argue that these are the real tests of the democratic peace theory and its key competitor. We present a detailed analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conict as a test case. Our results show that it is not just democracy per se, but election cycles that are important to the arguments of the democratic peace. Finally, using BVAR models, we demonstrate the including measures for elections can improve forecasts and inferences about the path of conict elections convey information about intent and resolve. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.utdallas.edu/~pbrandt/pbrandt/Research_files/BrandtFreemanISA2004.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.utdallas.edu/~pxb054000/pbrandt/Research_files/BrandtFreemanISA2004.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
