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Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Sheldrake, Thomas Edward Aspinall, Willy P. Odbert, Henry M. Wadge, Geoff Sparks, R. S. J. |
| Copyright Year | 2017 |
| Abstract | Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufriere Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes. |
| Starting Page | 287 |
| Ending Page | 300 |
| Page Count | 14 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.06.007 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/72257/1/1-s2.0-S0377027316303687-main.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/files/downloads/0/0/0/9/6/2/9/6/unige_96296_attachment01.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/files/119999000/1_s2.0_S0377027316303687_main.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://research-information.bristol.ac.uk/files/119999000/1_s2.0_S0377027316303687_main.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.06.007 |
| Volume Number | 341 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
