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Regras de políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil : evidências empíricas de dominância monetária e dominância fiscal
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Mendonca, Mario Jorge Cardoso Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva Sachsida, Adolfo |
| Copyright Year | 2017 |
| Abstract | Partindo da hipotese de que as regras de politica monetaria e fiscal no Brasil podem ter sido submetidas a diferentes regimes, este estudo faz uso do modelo de Leeper (1991; 2005) para identificar a cronologia das regras de politica quanto ao seu carater ativo ou passivo. As regras de politica sao estimadas pelo modelo de Markov Switching (MS), no qual os regimes sao gerados endogenamente. Os resultados obtidos nos permitem afirmar que ocorreu dominância fiscal em 2010 e entre 2013 e 2014. A dominância monetaria se da em boa parte de 2003 e no periodo de 2005 a 2007. O modelo ainda procura explicar o motivo de a taxa de inflacao, durante o ano de 2015, permanecer em elevacao mesmo com o Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) praticando uma politica monetaria ativa. Based on the hypothesis that the rulers of monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil may have been submitted to different regimes, the present study applies Leeper model (1991; 2005) in order to identify the chronology of policy regimes regarding their active and passive character. The policy rules are estimated by the Markov Switching (MS) model in which the regimes are endogenously identified. The results obtained allow us to place that fiscal dominance occurred in 2010 and between 2013 and 2014 while monetary dominance happened in much of 2003 and during the period from 2005 to 2007. The model still seeks to explain why the rate of Inflation during 2015 remained on the rise even though the monetary policy imposed by Central Bank was active. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/7948/1/td_2310.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
