Contribution The Utility of the NOAA Reforecast Dataset for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Coastal Western United States

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Workoff, Thomas E.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s second-generation Global Ensemble Forecast System reforecast dataset is utilized to generate probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) for the cool season during 1985–2011 over the West Coast of the United States using a rank analog postprocessing technique. It is found that the rank analog technique produced large improvements in forecast skill and reliability over the raw uncalibrated ensemble. Forecasts for three heavy precipitation events associated with atmospheric rivers are examined to demonstrate the utility of the rank analog technique. The rank analog technique yielded increases in forecast skill for two of the three cases but decreases in forecast skill for the other case, indicating that in some instances the technique can perform poorly. Overall, the results of this study are consistent with the findings from the 2012 Atmospheric River Retrospective Forecasting Experiment, in which participants found the reforecast-based rank analog PQPFs to provide useful guidance for forecasting precipitation over the West Coast of the United States.
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://nwafiles.nwas.org/jom/articles/2015/2015-JOM12/2015-JOM12.pdf
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article