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The Iranian Nuclear Threat: Israel's Options under International Law
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Greenblum, Benjamin M. |
| Copyright Year | 2006 |
| Abstract | I. INTRODUCTION II. IRAN'S PURSUIT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS A. A Primer on Nuclear Technology and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty B. Iran's Covert Nuclear Efforts C. Negotiations with the International Community 1. Iranian Negotiating Tactics 2. Relying on Russia and China D. Is an Iranian Bomb Inevitable? III. IRAN'S ANTI-ISRAEL AGGRESSION A. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Escalating or Perpetuating the Status Quo? B. The Convergence of Iran's Nuclear and Anti-Israel Agendas C. The Threats Posed to Israel by a Nuclear-Armed Iran 1. The Threat of a Nuclear Strike 2. Terrorism with Impunity IV. POTENTIAL RESPONSES TO THE IRANIAN THREAT A. International Negotiations Aimed at Keeping Iran Within the NPT B. Sanctions C. Regime Change D. Deterrence E. Military Force 1. The Last Resort: Withering International Criticism or Military Force? 2. The Necessity and Feasibility of an Israeli Strike V. THE LEGALITY OF ISRAELI PREVENTATIVE ACTION AGAINST IRAN A. The Charter and Traditional International Law B. John Yoo's Probability/Magnitude Model C. Polebaum's Reasonable Nation Standard VI. CONCLUSION Abstract Few question the conventional wisdom that Iran is well on its way to building a nuclear weapon. Yet even fewer acknowledge that once Iran masters the nuclear fuel cycle, the so-called "point of no return," this path will be irreversible. Among the consequences that would follow, this Article focuses on the two particular threats that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to Israel: the existential threat of a nuclear strike and the threat of an undeterrable and relentless escalation in anti-Israel terrorism. International efforts to stop Iran have nevertheless ignored the point of no return, relying instead on strategies that offer, at best, the possibility for results in the long term, such as negotiations, sanctions and regime change. As the country most threatened by a nuclear Iran, Israel may have no choice but to pursue a preventative strike that could forestall nuclear progress in the short term. Traditional international law would nevertheless prohibit such action, and this Article therefore uses Israel's predicament as a means of evaluating alternative legal models for an era in which anticipatory self-defense principles must adapt to terrorist and rogue state warfare. Using the Iranian-Israeli conflict as an example, the Author concludes that for international law to maintain relevance, it must offer states a credible and realistic way to defend themselves preventatively. I. INTRODUCTION The subtle but palpable shift towards normalized Arab-Israeli relations, fueled by the Gaza withdrawal and the U.S.-led war on terrorism, has isolated Iran as the key remaining opponent to Israel's existence. (1) Amidst this isolation, Iran's president has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map," (2) and so it is with alarm that Iran has been accused of developing nuclear weapons with the potential to destroy Israel in a single stroke. Iran maintains that it seeks nuclear power only for civilian energy, but a record of concealment and duplicitous diplomacy has laid this claim open to distrust. Israel is widely acknowledged to be the country most directly threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran, which would be capable of annihilating Israel by missile strike or intensifying its terrorist attacks on Israel with impunity. Military force lies at one end of a long spectrum of options open to Israel and others threatened by the prospect of a nuclear Iran. Yet beyond an international consensus that something must be done, diplomats have yet to settle on a common course. Since the long-awaited referral of the matter from the United Nations' atomic energy watchdog to the Security Council in February 2006, sanctions, regime change, and military force have been proposed but not acted upon. … |
| Starting Page | 55 |
| Ending Page | 55 |
| Page Count | 1 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Volume Number | 29 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.hjil.org/articles/hjil-29-1-greenblum.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
