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BMA Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting over the Huaihe Basin Using TIGGE Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Liu, Jian Guo Xie, Zhenghui |
| Copyright Year | 2014 |
| Abstract | AbstractBayesian model averaging (BMA) probability quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) models were established by calibrating their parameters using 1–7-day ensemble forecasts of 24-h accumulated precipitation, and observations from 43 meteorological stations in the Huaihe Basin. Forecasts were provided by four single-center (model) ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) and their multicenter (model) grand ensemble systems, which consider exchangeable members (EGE) in The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). The four single-center EPSs were from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP), and the Met Office (UKMO). Comparisons between the raw ensemble, logistic regression, and BMA for PQPFs suggested that the BMA predictive models performed better than the raw ensemble forecasts and logistic regression. The ver... |
| Starting Page | 1542 |
| Ending Page | 1555 |
| Page Count | 14 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00031.1 |
| Volume Number | 142 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://web.lasg.ac.cn/staff/xie/papers/2014-Liu-MWR.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00031.1 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
