Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
Faculdade De Economia, Administração E Contabilidade Departamento De Economia Programa De Pós-graduação Em Economia Política Fiscal, Previsões Orçamentárias E Os Determinantes Dos Desvios De Execução No Brasil
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Piza, Elaine Cristina De Paulo, São |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | This thesis aims to analyze the politic and economic determinants of the budget execution deviation in Brazil, from 2002 to 2015. Execution deviation is defined as the difference between the observed value of the variable and the forecast budget value. From the use of real-time data, i.e., data available to policy makers at the time the fiscal policy decisions are taken, we seek to understand the execution deviations from fiscal policy in the light of some active factors during the planning phase and policy execution, confronting the intention declared by the policy maker in the budget planning with the final results. To work around the lack of a real-time dataset organized for the Brazilian economy, the dataset used was built from the official documents generated throughout the phases of the budget process. The construction of this dataset, however, was limited due to insufficient data in real-time public access. To achieve this goal, the fiscal execution deviations were initially evaluated from the analysis of the events that conditioned the planning and execution of the budget. To this analysis we added up an empirical analysis, in which we attempted to identify the determinants of the planning phase from the analysis of the factors that influence in the revenue forecast and the conditioners of the budget execution phase from the identification of factors contributing to the execution deviations. The results indicate that the realized values drifted away significantly more from the fiscal forecast from the year 2008 and that the deviations in the forecasts of macroeconomic factors, particularly in the GDP growth forecast, help to explain this gap. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.11606/T.12.2016.tde-16092016-110107 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12140/tde-16092016-110107/publico/CorrigidaElaine.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.11606/T.12.2016.tde-16092016-110107 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
