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A Game-Theoretic Modeling Approach to Air Traffic Forecasting
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Vaze, Vikrant Harder, Reed Thayer |
| Copyright Year | 2017 |
| Abstract | Federal, state and local aviation planners rely on air traffic forecasts for workforce staff planning (particularly for air traffic controllers), evaluation of current and future technological improvements at airports, planning of airport capacity expansion, and evaluation of federal funding requests for airport infrastructure improvements. While most existing forecasting models are econometric or statistical in nature, incorporating a more behavioral understanding of airline competition into the forecasts and planning process represents a significant opportunity to improve their efficacy. With these possibilities in mind, we develop a two-stage game-theoretic model of airline capacity allocation decisions under competition. We first demonstrate desirable theoretical properties and computational tractability of our model, and then exploit them to develop solution algorithms with very fast convergence properties to enable rapid generation of forecasts, requiring only a few seconds of run-time. We then solve our model to equilibrium of the twostage game using a real-world dataset based on an 11-airport, four-airline network from the western United States. The out-ofsample validations of traffic predictions at the airport and OD (origin-destination) level indicate a good fit to real-world traffic data for various look-ahead times and at various levels of granularity. We thus demonstrate that a behaviorally consistent two-stage game model of airline competition provides a good fit to observed airline operations at various levels of aggregation, in turn highlighting the potential of game-theoretic models to improve air traffic forecasting and scenario analysis. KeywordsAir Traffic Forecasts; Game Theory; Airline Competition; Nash Equilibrium; Frequency and Fare Competition. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.atmseminarus.org/seminarContent/seminar12/presentations/12th_ATM_RD_Seminar_presentation_111.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.atmseminarus.org/seminarContent/seminar12/papers/12th_ATM_RD_Seminar_paper_111.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
