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Development of a Future Disaster Risk Assessment Model for Climate Change Using Bayesian GLM and Statistical Downscaling Model
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Kwon, Hyun-Han Myeong, Soojeong |
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Abstract | Abstract This study aims to develop a future disaster risk assessment model for climate change. A linear regression model, which hasbeen widely used in previous studies, has limitations such as (1) the underlying probability distribution assumes to be Gaussianand (2) predicted values from the model are often given in negative numbers that are not appropriate in our case. In the presentstudy, a Bayesian GLM-based disaster risk assessment model is introduced in conjunction with relevant predictors. Predictorswere initially derived from daily precipitation data. The data that were finally put in the model as main predictors were (1) thenumber of consecutive cases of over 80 mm precipitation that lasted less than 10 days, and (2) the heaviest rainfall of the year. Anonstationary Markov chain downscaling model using KMA A2 climate change scenario as inputs was adopted to construct futurerainfall scenarios in Gangwon, Seoul, Chungnam and Jeju, and the required rainfall predictors were extracted from the con-structed scenarios. It was found that the proposed model could predict 90% of the disaster risks in the flood-prone areas such asGangwon, Seoul and Chungnam. However, the proposed model failed to predict for the nonflood-prone area of Jeju Island. Futuredisaster risk variability was assessed using probability density function. The probability density function shifted toward the uppertail for all the areas, meaning increased disaster risks under climate change. Based on the results, this study claims that the pro-posed Bayesian GLM model is able to take into consideration the increased variability associated with climate change and thuscan be effectively used in estimating future disaster risks.Key words : Damage cost, Climate change, Bayesian GLM, Precipitation |
| Starting Page | 207 |
| Ending Page | 216 |
| Page Count | 10 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.6.207 |
| Volume Number | 11 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://ocean.kisti.re.kr/downfile/volume/kosham/BJHHD8/2011/v11n6/BJHHD8_2011_v11n6_207.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.6.207 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
