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Do Opinion Polls Move Stock Markets? Evidence from the US Presidential Election in 2016
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Herold, Michael Kanz, Andreas Muck, Matthias |
| Copyright Year | 2018 |
| Abstract | This paper analyzes stock market movements during the pre-election period of the 2016 US presidential elections. We raise the question whether stock prices anticipated the growing probability of a Trump win. In our analysis, we identify industries that should either benefit or suffer from a Trump win and investigate how polling information in favor of Trump affects return contributions from market and volatility risk. We find that polling information has a significant impact on stock prices. JEL classification: G12; G13; F31 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.geaba.de/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DP18-14-B3-1.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |