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Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others ? ā
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Agostino, Antonello Dā Mcquinn, Kieran Whelan, Karl |
| Copyright Year | 2010 |
| Abstract | In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variab les, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex postdifferences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex antedifferences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple test of the null hypothesis that all forecasters in th e US Survey of Professional Forecasters have equal ability. We construct a test statistic that re flects both the relative and absolute performance of the forecaster and use bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical results with the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of e qual forecaster ability. Results suggests limited evidence for the idea that the best forecaster s are actually innately better than others, though there is evidence that a relatively small gro up of forecasters perform very poorly. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not ne cessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Ireland or the European Central Bank. Contact: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Eco nomic Analysis and Research Department, PO Box 559 Dame Street, Dublin 2, Ireland. E-mail: antonello.dagostino@ centralbank.ie. Contact: Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland Eco nomic Analysis and Research Department, PO Box 559 Dame Street, Dublin 2, Ireland. E-mail: kmcquinn@centralba nk.ie. Contact: Department of Economics, University College Dublin, Belfield, D ublin 4; e-mail: karl.whelan@ucd.ie. 1 ARE SOME FORECASTERS REALLY BETTER THAN OTHERS? 1 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp10_12.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/32938/1/MPRA_paper_32938.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.karlwhelan.com/Papers/jmcb.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://researchrepository.ucd.ie/bitstream/10197/2645/1/wp10_12.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/71301/1/740920960.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
