Cultivation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Germany: considerations on risk against the background of climate change.

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Kölling, Christian Knoke, Thomas Schall, Peter Ammer, Christian
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	The decision to cultivate a tree species such as norway spruce also outside its natural ranges is based on assumptions concerning growth potential and the probability of survival. even though derived from experiences, these assumptions encompass some uncertainties. Though crucial, the risk of an economic failure is difficult to assess because an adequate data basis is missing, which supports the decision. in the case of changing environmental conditions, as implied by anthropogenic climate change, the difficulties of risk assessment even increase. nevertheless, it is possible to state a rising risk of cultivating norway spruce at the warm-dry edge of cultivation area. especially in germany several regions are situated at the outermost edge of the climatic niche. accordingly, in large areas even a moderate rise in future temperature will considerably restrict the area suitable for cultivation. Since a spontaneous and rapid genetic adaptation of the populations is quite implausible, the options for the management of not adapted or vulnerable norway spruce stands are (i) immediate change of tree species after damage or planned conversion during the course of regular regeneration of the mature stand, (ii) advanced regeneration in middle-aged stands and (iii) changed thinning concepts in young stands. in the resulting stands the concept of minimizing risks by favouring a mixture of tree species, which are supposed to be better adapted to future climate, should be the guideline for stand management. The likelihood of increasing risk when cultivating norway spruce should be taken into account, even if uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist. otherwise the opportunity costs by neglecting the need for conversion of a vulnerable tree species in due time could easily exceed the expected returns.
Starting Page	42
Ending Page	54
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Volume Number	80
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://www.waldundklima.de/klima/klima_docs/forstarchiv_2009_fichte_01.pdf
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article