Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
Wherefore Art Thou : Emerging Characteristics in California ’ s Hispanic Out-Migration
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Abstract | The loss of California population to domestic migration has undergone significant changes over the last fifteen years. While traditionally the outflow has been seen as "white or middle class flight," recently a new underlying dynamic has begun to assert itself: Hispanic out-migration. Having spent some time in California, both newly-arrived and later generation Hispanics are subsequently migrating to other states in increasing numbers. This movement is notable for the change in destination, particularly to more rural states, as well as education levels; this migration appears to be most prevalent among the least/lesser educated. We examine the underlying forces behind this Urban to Rural out-migration shift using a nested logit migration model augmented by a spatial correlation component. Using IRS and ACS data, we examine the relative effects of education, same-race, and amenities on this migration decision. We show that race concentrations and urbanization are less important than cost-of-living and wage/employment considerations-elements that tend to favor rural areas. The growing prominence of the Hispanic ethnicity in the US population, and its changing distribution and dispersal pattern, motivates specific attention to Hispanics changing roles in models of internal migration. The history of such models has shown increasing elaboration over past decades. Early migration researchers conceptualized the migration process as a largely labor-market phenomenon where migration responds mainly to the spatial disparities in economic opportunities. The typical model explaining origin-to-destination specific flows of migrants included such factors as wage level and unemployment rate, together with distance and origin and destination populations (Lowry, 1966). Later, 'quality of life' factors, particularly those related to climate, became introduced into these models as movement from the snowbelt to the sunbelt became more widespread (Graves, 1976; Greenwood 1981; Liaw and Ledent, 1987). More recently, the wide disparity in housing costs across states has entered into the calculus of movers (Turner, 2000; Coy, 2002) such that it should also be considered in models of internal migration within the United States. While US migration patterns adhere to a standard set of determinants largely dependent on personal characteristics such as age and education, it is increasingly important to incorporate the differences that race and ethnic background may create. In examining the migration patterns of California Hispanics we will address the role of raceethnicity in two ways. First, we will reassess the role of so called 'cultural constraints' as they affect departures and destination choices for different race-ethnic groups (Liaw and Frey, 1996). These constraints shape migration patterns for these groups due to their needs for social support networks, kinship ties, and access to informal employment opportunities that tend to be available in areas that house large concentrations of coethnics. We argue that Hispanics as a group are acting more like average migrants with a consequent reduction in their reliance on cultural support networks. Secondly, we examine the locational choices of these Hispanic migrants and attempt to parameterize a choice theoretic using a nested logit model that incorporates the rising number of urban to rural migration decisions. Theoretical Considerations Theories of internal migration recognize the multiplicity of choices that individuals face when making a migration decision. The most accepted perspective argues that individuals decide where to live based on a comparison of the expected long-term costs and benefits of living in different places, including the place they currently reside in. However, the literature is not clear about how exactly the migratory decision is made. Do individuals decide to leave their place of origin first, and then decide where to move to? Or do they decide that they want to migrate only after they have compared the conditions in all the destinations they are aware of and know where they will be moving to? If so, do they value the conditions in their place of origin more than they value the conditions in other destinations, or would they be willing to move to any place that has relatively better living conditions? Different approaches to these questions lead to different methods and statistical models of the migration process. According to Han (2000), migration is a complex process, which, as far as its emergence and development is concerned, is continually determined through a multiplicity of causes and factors. As a rule the causes triggering this process are a mixture of objectively compelling exogenous factors (e.g. company contacts or attraction through employment scouts) and subjectively justified decisions (e.g. better employment opportunities, starting a family). A classic approach to explaining the complex and multicausal determinants of migration can be found in the theory of so-called push and pull factors. Push factors (migration factors) comprise all those conditions of the migrants' area of origin that induce them to migrate or temporarily migrate, such as political pressure, economic outlook and housing costs. Pull factors (factors that attract migrants) are those circumstances in the host area that motivate and encourage them to migrate. Factors that may attract migrants are, for example, a more receptive social structure, economic prosperity, better education and wage/salary opportunities relative to those in the original area. It is generally assumed that with modern information, communication, and transportation capabilities push and pull factors are becoming ever more important to individual migration decisions. Gatzweiler (1975) pointed out that in the end every migration decision is the result of push factors from the source area and pull factors from the target area working together. An array of approaches in the migration-theory literature aim to identify and explicate important determining factors for an individual's willingness to migrate or for aggregated migration flows. The starting point of most theoretical models attempting to explain individual migration decisions is the neo-classical approach. The majority of microeconomic models are based on this approach, which views migration as a form of investment that is worthwhile or “profitable” for some individuals, but not so for others. To this a human capital factor is added so that migration takes place when the cost directly incurred through it will be reimbursed or will “pay for itself” through higher income in the future. Because of unemployment and other economic and non-economic aspects, migration is often connected with financial and social risks. According to neoclassical models, migrants must overcome a strong preference for one's present environment, high migration costs, potentially poor labor market chances, great uncertainty and the hope that conditions in the origin region might unexpectedly turn for the better. There are considerations on the macro-economic level as well, which in the end can be traced back to micro-economic foundations. Among these are demographic trends, self-selection of migrants, self-sustaining migration and institutional restrictions on migration. Demographic trends are quite important: higher population figures in the sending area lead per se to greater migration flows. With regard to the causes of selfsustaining migration, so called network effects command the greatest attention. These result from the fact that, apart from the contacts amongst themselves, migrants above all, maintain good contact with their originating area. Through this exchange of information, the information and migration costs go down for all future migrants. People who have migrated in the past help the next ones with assimilation in the receiving area and also help reduce psychological costs that may arise through separation from one's original area (Bauer, Epstein and Gang, 2000). Bartel (1989) studied the migration behavior of different groups of migrants (Asians, Europeans and Hispanics) to the United States in 1980. His research shows that the network effects are very strong. Regions with a high number of residents belonging to a particular ethnic group are the preferred destination of migrants of that respective group. In both their microeconomic and macro-economic studies, Bauer and Zimmermann (1995) found a high level of significance for network effects on migration. In a recent study Bauer, Epstein and Gang (2000) examined the influence of a migration network on migrants' decisions based on location. They observed that the size of the Mexican network within the United States has a positive effect on the likelihood of migration. This is in contrast to the native or assimilated population. This group of individuals tends to treat locational amenities and economic prospects as the primary determinants of locational choice when migrating. While relative social connectivity may have strong influence, this influence is at a familial level and is usually independent of greater community considerations and ties. Nested Logit Models Models using the nested logit specification have been increasingly prevalent in the literature of internal migration during recent years, and good examples of their application are Liang and White's study of the impact of market transition in interprovincial migration in China in 1983-1988 (Liang, 1997), and Frey et al. study of the factors affecting population redistribution in the U.S. (Frey et al., 1996). We justify the nested formulation of the model over multinomial conditional logit (MNCL) mainly, because we suspect that the expected utilities associated with the unobserved destinations' choices can be correlated, which is a violation of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIV) assumption required for the correct us of MNCL. If an individ |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.csus.edu/indiv/c/chalmersk/personal%20website/rsai_11_ver1.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
