NDLI: North and South Hemispheric Solar Activity for Cycles 21-23 : Asymmetry and Conditional Volatility of Areas of Plage Regions

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North and South Hemispheric Solar Activity for Cycles 21-23 : Asymmetry and Conditional Volatility of Areas of Plage Regions

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Gonçalves, E. Mendes-Lopes, Nazaré Dorotovic, Ivan Fernandes, J. Americo Garcia, Alfredo
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	In this work we study the dynamic evolution of the time series describing the areas of plage regions observed daily at the Observatório Astronómico da Universidade de Coimbra, in each one of the solar hemispheres during solar cycles 21-23. The classical ARMA model turned out to be insufficient to describe the time variations seen in the data, due to the presence of strong conditional variability. We found that the data are well fitted by ARMA mixed with powerδ TGARCH error models. The power index δ is non-integer; this property has recently been introduced in the literature on time series analysis and indicates the presence of strong volatility and long memory in the data series. We also detected the presence of dynamic asymmetry in the plage region areas observed in the two hemispheres, as two different temporal models are obtained to fit them. This conclusion is also supported by the dynamic evolution of the daily difference (north−south) time series that is significantly different from a white noise. This statistical modeling of time series, taking into account new and different characteristics of the solar activity, will be of great usefulness in subsequent forecast developments.
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://estudogeral.sib.uc.pt/bitstream/10316/44815/1/SolarPhysics_2013_G_ML_al.pdf
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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