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Protecting the Duke Forest – Developing an Assessment of Threats , Vulnerabilities , and Risks to Forest Resources and Management Priorities
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Dharia, Monika Borsuk, E. G. Holt, Jonathan |
| Copyright Year | 2019 |
| Abstract | This study develops an approach that can be used by the Duke Forest management team in order to protect the forest from impacts due to climate change and invasive species as well as to achieve their goals related to growth. To assist the Duke Forest in achieving these goals, an objectives hierarchy and influence diagrams were created to elicit the contributing factors to the Forest’s goals and assess each goal for threats and vulnerabilities. A preliminary analytical model was then created to evaluate future timber revenue, which serves as an example of how the qualitative risk assessment models can be quantified to generate probabilistic predictions of ecosystem responses to alternative management strategies. It was found that timber revenue will likely decrease significantly due to the impacts from climate change. However, other factors for growing pine trees should still be evaluated such as the revenue that can be generated from carbon credits, which can still help maintain revenue currently generated from timber. By developing the analytical model for timber revenue, it was shown that this approach can have broad applications in that it can be used to quantify the other influence diagrams created. By applying this method to the other objectives of the Duke Forest, one can create analytical and reliable models for decision analysis. Overall, by creating the foundation of a multiscale approach to evaluate decisions and to assess risks, this study can have strong potential benefits to the Duke Forest as well as to other forest systems. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://sites.duke.edu/monikadhariagcs/files/2019/04/Grand-Challenge-Scholars-Thesis_final-3.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
