Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Chebil, Ali Mtimet, Nadhem Tizaoui, Hassen |
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Abstract | L’objectif principal de ce travail est d’analyser l’impact du changement climatique sur la productivite des cultures cerealieres dans la region de Beja, situee au nord-ouest de la Tunisie. Pour ce faire, des modeles de regression multiple ont ete estimes pour trois cultures cerealieres (ble dur, ble tendre et orge). Les variables explicatives du rendement utilisees dans l’analyse sont celles d’ordre climatique (precipitations et temperatures) et le progres technique. La periode d’analyse est de 1980 a 2009. Les estimations des modeles de regression semi-logarithmiques ont montre que les rendements des differentes cultures cerealieres dependaient des variables climatiques et du progres technique. L’analyse de la projection des effets du changement climatique sur les rendements cerealiers dans la zone d’etude, en utilisant les scenarios du modele HadCM3, a montre que l’impact est important a l’horizon de 2030. Cet impact sera plus accentue pour le ble tendre. Ainsi, l’encouragement de la recherche en matiere d’identification de nouvelles techniques agricoles, la diffusion de varietes tolerantes a la diminution des precipitations, dans les periodes critiques de croissance, et de varietes precoces, font partie des strategies d’adaptation pour la reduction des effets du changement climatique sur le rendement cerealier a long terme...... This article analyzes the potential impact of climate change on cereal productivity in the Beja region of northwestern Tunisia. Multiple regression models were estimated for the cereal crops durum wheat, bread wheat and barley, using annual data from 1980 to 2009. The yield of each crop was used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were mainly related to the climate (precipitation and temperature) and technological progress. The results show that yield variability is affected by climate and technological progress variables. The projected climate change scenarios predicted by the HadCM3 model will have a significant effect on crop yields by 2030, particularly for bread wheat. Some adaptation strategies that could alleviate climate change effects on cereal crops yields in the long run are the identification of new agricultural practices in this area, the widespread diffusion of varieties that can tolerate rainfall shortage during the critical periods, and the adoption of early maturing varieties. |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| Ending Page | 11 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.22004/ag.econ.156981 |
| Volume Number | 06 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://tind-customer-agecon.s3.amazonaws.com/aa8b3628-3ed1-4674-9a48-c574b6cc7581?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAXL7W7Q3XHXDVDQYS&Expires=1564229219&Signature=cbnUiSs0avjP0ovo3tskhH5lNnA%3D&response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename*%3DUTF-8''Chebil_06_02.pdf&response-content-type=application/pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.156981 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
