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A non-local model output statistics approach for the downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs for the projection of rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Noor, Muhammad Yusof Mohd Ismail, Tarmizi Ullah, Shahid Iqbal, Zafar Nawaz, Nadeem Ahmed, Kamal |
| Copyright Year | 2019 |
| Abstract | In this study, a non-local MOS is proposed for the downscaling of daily rainfall of couple model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs for the projections of rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia for two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projections of eight GCMs for both the mentioned RCPs were used for this purpose. The GCM simulations were downscaled at 19 observed stations distributed over Peninsular Malaysia. Random Forest (RF) was used for the development of non-local regression-based MOS models. The results revealed a high accuracy of the models in downscaling rainfall at all the observed stations. The mean absolute error (MAE) of the models were found in the range of 0.8–0.39; normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between 7.4 and 41.7, Percent Bias (PBIAS) between –0.3 and 10.1, Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) between 0.81 and 0.99 and R between 0.89 and 0.99. The increase in annual rainfall was in the range of 7.3–29.5%. The increase was higher for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. The maximum increase was observed in the northern part of Peninsular Malaysia in the range of 20.7–29.5%, while the minimum in the south-west region was in the range of 7.6–15.2%. doi: 10.2166/wcc.2019.041 s://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/doi/10.2166/wcc.2019.041/609700/jwc2019041.pdf Muhammad Noor (corresponding author) Tarmizi bin Ismail Zafar Iqbal Kamal Ahmed Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia E-mail: mnkakar@gmail.com Shahid Ullah The Agriculture and Cooperative Department, Government of Balochistan, Pakistan Nadeem Nawaz Kamal Ahmed Faculty of Water Resource Management, Lasbela University of Agriculture Water and Marine Sciences (LUAWMS), 90150 Uthal, Balochistan, Pakistan |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
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| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://watermark.silverchair.com/jwc2019041.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAiwwggIoBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggIZMIICFQIBADCCAg4GCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMB3y7EZFqCALXLYDgAgEQgIIB332_xcoiDG_d6aiKqGMTVM9i_pLOITUpqDgsBgN0lX-RnVxtTNnrYqeEU8lZBkRuQBVrXXRgblu3EBKmifFWrnu16CtTqFQi3u9DL7MiUPLt4hzip1vpOe5k2sgSTg0auwZ-JGDZnRFuphmD_YkMFreVvhmJNIocl0J0qJbTeUfLmWxpet0cDsmZANAIlcIyMrvfzl-yFSOmmvoB2INXM5I20D6US51d8f5p-hjzBDrrF-jC0In6MNUTZgt1Lql_SKz7_KHpm81OcgAbabrMNaYb2MAjmBayMHmU5Guh08EhBav0wHgoq3-8tMkK6EyO5c8GyNembErJ2ogX01le1DfNb5_wcOSHBQy36xsg3SMEVYQmIqsCN80go1n2_zqNnxbfvuX9As9gu1ZZaxd2UAliyNIK91Yg3XtviecmkoGBQ9JOl9RVu4vEDybJJUdF47oQ2fIACuzQegbNE9GHHPQwUg3WVQiBvA3YbSmKjOMNdoO1IKGpB7gpqO_j_XmrjLfOvPudI71AopEzoyGyZ0XmKwDMYTSHqtm5SOvVR8rde3EhjE7E1f8jyeZQvqJNIwYPOvc_HIk50e9g1lOYoArGAV6N1biJxs275icEDdadl8yjPEJd9JCkXGBzO26S |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.041 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
