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La prévision des systèmes orageux stationnaires dans le sud-est de la France
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Goulet, Laurent |
| Copyright Year | 2015 |
| Abstract | In the autumn, southeastern France is regularly struck by high precipitating events. Some of these can be devastating. The most severe episodes are typically related to stationary convective systems. Such systems can regenerate themselves for several hours, typically producing several hundred millimetres of rain over areas of the order of some hundred square kilometres. In spite of constant progress due to improved knowledge of the mechanisms involved and continuous improvement in numerical models, forecasting stationary convection remains a challenge. This article describes the conditions for the triggering and maintenance of these slow-moving convective systems based on different diagnostics from numerical models and the observing system. Numerical weather prediction can provide useful information regarding the precursor ingredients, about 12 to 24 hours ahead of the apparition of the convective system. Observations are most useful to identify the stationary system with some certainty once it has appeared. They allow to monitor the stationary system from its various fingerprints and to anticipate its evolution. Various conceptual models, which rely on the main drivers for stationary organized convection, provide some guidance on the diagnostics used. |
| Starting Page | 27 |
| Ending Page | 39 |
| Page Count | 13 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.4267/2042/56836 |
| Volume Number | 8 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/bitstream/handle/2042/56836/meteo_2015_90_27.pdf?sequence=1 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.4267/2042%2F56836 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
