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Plenary Keynote Lecture Emerging Medical Device Technologies : Creating Better Healthcare Solutions for Chronic Disease Management
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Brody, William R. |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Abstract | Most often we look at historic events through the lens of past achievements. The phrase “The history books are written by the victors of wars” applies as well to technologic innovation. Rarely do we look at the process of innovation prospectively. The purpose of this talk is to illustrate common fallacies in overreaching or under estimating the potential value of new inventions. Successful entrepreneurs attempt to credit their success to their intellect, creativity and drive to succeed, while those whose ideas or companies fail often attribute their lack of success due to external factors. In fact, in both cases, luck can play a major role in the success or failure of an idea, an invention, or a company. Although there are not good statistics on the subject, our ability to predict winners or losers is not very good, and one author indicates that the probability of success for a start-up is around 30-35%, although the figure may be even lower as the total net returns for venture capital in the years between 2000 and 20010 were negative. Some examples of errors of judgment that under or overestimated the chance of success for a new invention or innovation includes: 1. Luck – good or bad. Some innovations (e.g., coronary stents) succeed for entirely different applications that were intended by the inventor. Likewise, some truly great ideas fail because of market factors – e.g., failure to gain approval from Medicare for reimbursement – that are not under the control of the inventor or company developing the product. 2. An idea predicted to fail might actually succeed because although the analysis predicting failure was correct given a set of assumptions, one or more of the assumptions was actually not true. Magnetic resonance imaging illustrates this situation. 3. People may successfully innovate in their field but then become fixated on their solution and fail to recognize new opportunities when they become available. Cardiac surgeons developed the coronary artery bypass operation but failed to recognize the potential of balloon angioplasty and completely missed the opportunity. 4. An idea that would appear to have little application becomes highly successful when enabled by a second innovation. Coronary angiography was thought to have little clinical utility until the coronary bypass operation was developed. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://web.stanford.edu/~shenoy/GroupPublications/Shenoy-IEEEEMBC-Keynote-2012.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
