A previsão de insolvência pelo modelo Cox : uma aplicação para a análise de risco de companhias abertas brasileiras

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Martins, M. S. Galli, Oscar Claudino
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	The first studies on failure prediction were developed in the 1930's. However, the subject gained impulse only in the 1960's, when statistical techniques started to be used. In Brazil, the first works on the subject date from the 1970's. It is worth pointing out that the statistical technique used in the majority of these works was the multivariate linear discriminant analysis. In an attempt to contribute to the theme, this work proposes to test a model of prediction of corporate bankruptcy based on the model developed by Cox (1972). This model differs from those based on logit, probit and discriminant analysis techniques, because it provides not only the probability of an event happening in the future, but also an estimate of the time until it occurs. The results show that only two indicators were considered relevant to calculate the risk of bankruptcy: SHORT TERM BANKING LOANS/CURRENT ASSETS and RETURN ON EQUITY (ROE). The model demonstrated that it is possible to identify, in advance, whether or not a corporation is likely to go bankrupt and that the Cox Proportional Hazards Model can be used as a tool in the task of predicting the risks of bankruptcy faced by corporations operating at Bovespa.
Starting Page	231
Ending Page	248
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Volume Number	13
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/4011/401137456010.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://www.lume.ufrgs.br/bitstream/handle/10183/20391/000600051.pdf?isAllowed=y&sequence=1
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://seer.ufrgs.br/index.php/read/article/download/39918/25452
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article