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Simulação de Vazões e Níveis de Água Médios Mensais para o Rio Tapajós Usando Modelos ARIMA
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Figueiredo, Nélio Moura De Blanco, Cláudio José Cavalcante |
| Copyright Year | 2014 |
| Abstract | This paper presents an analysis of predictions of monthly average flows and water levels, in advance of 24 months, for the river Tapajós, in Brazil, using stochastic models such as ARIMA. The model identification was performed through the analysis of the autocorrelation coefficient and function (ACF) and the analysis of the partial autocorrelation coefficient and function (PACF). The likelihood criteria showed lower values for the ARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,1)12. The performance criteria used were the coefficient of Nash and Sutcliffe R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error). The ARIMA model (1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 showed a better performance for the series of flow and water levels, both in the calibration and validation phases. For calibration, the model presented an average R2 equal to 0.94 for water levels and an average R2 equal to 0.92 for flow rates; and average RMSE equal to 0.08 for water levels and average RMSE equal to 0.15 for flow rates. For validation, the average R2 was equal to 0.95 for water levels and average R2 was equal to 0.91 for flow rates; and average RMSE equal to 0.07 for water levels and average RMSE equal to 0.15 for flow rates. It was observed, due to the larger linearity of the temporal behavior of water levels, that these were better simulated than the flow rates. This result can be explained by the linear conception of the ARIMA models. In the context of future use of the water in the Tapajos basin, the model considered, is an interesting tool and can be used to analyze the hydrological regime of the basin, through predictions of water levels, against the HPP to be installed and, consequently, the potential environmental impacts and water use conflicts. Key-words: Hydrologic modeling, stochastic model ARIMA, water levels forecast, streamflow forecast, Amazon. |
| Starting Page | 111 |
| Ending Page | 126 |
| Page Count | 16 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.21168/rbrh.v19n3.p111-126 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://abrh.s3.sa-east-1.amazonaws.com/Sumarios/168/4e7bea32017da2591807ba5d3a0d189a_feff247997fd99f78ccfbca0652541f0.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.21168/rbrh.v19n3.p111-126 |
| Volume Number | 19 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
