NDLI: Estimando el efecto del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de la enfermedad de Chagas en Chile por medio del número reproductivo

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Estimando el efecto del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de la enfermedad de Chagas en Chile por medio del número reproductivo

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Ayala, Salvador Landeros Alvarado, Sergio Cáceres, Dante Zulantay, Inés Canals, Mauricio
Copyright Year	2019
Abstract	Background: Reproductive number (R 0 )-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change. Aim: To map R 0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change. Material and Methods: We used a relationship between R 0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions. Results: We obtained a geographical R 0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R 0 averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R 0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios. Conclusions: Mapping R 0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome. (Rev Med Chile 2019; 147: 683-692)
Starting Page	683
Ending Page	692
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
DOI	10.4067/s0034-98872019000600683
Volume Number	147
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://scielo.conicyt.cl/pdf/rmc/v147n6/0717-6163-rmc-147-06-0683.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://doi.org/10.4067/s0034-98872019000600683
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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