Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
Spatio-temporal smoothing of lightning climatologies
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Simon, Thorsten Umlauf, Nikolaus Zeileis, Achim Mayr, Georg J. Schulz, Wolfgang Diendorfer, Gerhard |
| Copyright Year | 2016 |
| Abstract | Abstract. This study develops methods for estimating lightning climatologies on the d−1km−2 scale for regions with complex terrain and applies them to summertime observations (2010 – 2015) of the lightning location system ALDIS in the Austrian state of Carinthia in the Eastern Alps. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are used to model both the probability of occurrence and the intensity of lightning. Additive effects are set up for altitude, day of the year (season) and geographical location (longitude/latitude). The performance 5 of the models is verified by 6-fold cross-validation. The altitude effect of the occurrence model suggests higher probabilities of lightning for locations on higher elevations. The seasonal effect peaks in mid July. The spatial effect models several local features, but there is a pronounced minimum in the Northwest and a clear maximum in the Eastern part of Carinthia. The estimated effects of the intensity model reveal similar features, though they are not equal. Main difference is that the spatial effect varies more strongly than the analogous effect of 10 the occurrence model. A major asset of the introduced method is that the resulting climatological information vary smoothly over space and time. Thus, the climatology is capable to serve as a useful tool in quantitative applications, i.e., risk assessment and weather prediction. |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| Ending Page | 15 |
| Page Count | 15 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.5194/nhess-2016-198 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2016-198/nhess-2016-198.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-198 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
