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Forecasting UK industrial production over the business cycle
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Simpson, Paul Osborn, Denise R. Sensier, Marianne |
| Copyright Year | 2000 |
| Abstract | This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production. Both linear and non-linear specifications are examined, with the latter being of the Markov-switching type as used in many recent business cycle applications. The Markov-switching models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession, but a three-indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model include a short-term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly CBI survey. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Starting Page | 405 |
| Ending Page | 424 |
| Page Count | 20 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.1002/for.797 |
| Volume Number | 20 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/es2000/1059.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.ses.man.ac.uk/cgbcr/Papers/ioptvtp.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.ses.man.ac.uk/cgbcr/Papers/ioptvtp3.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.1002/for.797 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |