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Seasonal hydrologic prediction in the United States: understanding the role of initial hydrologic conditions and seasonal climate forecast skill
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Shukla, Shraddhanand Lettenmaier, Dennis P. |
| Copyright Year | 2011 |
| Abstract | Seasonal hydrologic forecasts derive their skill from knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill associated with seasonal climate outlooks. De- pending on the type of hydrological regime and the sea- son, the relative contributions of initial hydrologic condi- tions and climate forecast skill to seasonal hydrologic fore- cast skill vary. We seek to quantify these contributions on a relative basis across the Conterminous United States. We constructed two experiments - Ensemble Streamflow Predic- tion and reverse-Ensemble Streamflow Prediction - to par- tition the contributions of the initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill to overall forecast skill. In en- semble streamflow prediction (first experiment) hydrologic forecast skill is derived solely from knowledge of initial hy- drologic conditions, whereas in reverse-ensemble streamflow prediction (second experiment), it is derived solely from at- mospheric forcings (i.e. perfect climate forecast skill). Using the ratios of root mean square error in predicting cumulative runoff and mean monthly soil moisture of each experiment, we identify the variability of the relative contributions of the initial hydrologic conditions and climate forecast skill spa- tially throughout the year. We conclude that the initial hy- drologic conditions generally have the strongest influence on the prediction of cumulative runoff and soil moisture at lead- 1 (first month of the forecast period), beyond which climate forecast skill starts to have greater influence. Improvement in climate forecast skill alone will lead to better seasonal hy- drologic forecast skill in most parts of the Northeastern and Southeastern US throughout the year and in the Western US mainly during fall and winter months; whereas improvement in knowledge of the initial hydrologic conditions can poten- tially improve skill most in the Western US during spring and summer months. We also observed that at a short lead time (i.e. lead-1) contribution of the initial hydrologic conditions in soil moisture forecasts is more extensive than in cumula- tive runoff forecasts across the Conterminous US. |
| Starting Page | 3529 |
| Ending Page | 3538 |
| Page Count | 10 |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| DOI | 10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011 |
| Volume Number | 15 |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/8/6565/2011/hessd-8-6565-2011.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/3529/2011/hess-15-3529-2011.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3529-2011 |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
