NDLI: Escenarios de cambio climático (CMIP-5) para tres áreas naturales protegidas en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal

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Escenarios de cambio climático (CMIP-5) para tres áreas naturales protegidas en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Quiñonez, Ulises Manzanilla Calderón, Oscar Alberto Aguirre Jiménez-Pérez, Javier Treviño-Garza, Eduardo Javier Yerena-Yamallel, José Israel
Copyright Year	2018
Abstract	Due to climate change, precipitation and temperature patterns will cause significant changes in the ecosystems of the world. The tool used to simulate future climate is the Global Circulation Models (GCM), which are used to generate future climate scenarios. The objective of this study was to estimate climate scenarios for 2045-2069 for the Pico de Orizaba natural protected areas (ANP), Nevado de Toluca and Volcan Nevado de Colima. The monthly climatic layers at 1 km2 were used for the present and future of the CRNMCM5 and GDFL_CM3 MCG with a radioactive forcing (RCP) of 4.5 (constant CO2 emissions) and 8.5 (increasing CO2 emissions). The layers were trimmed to the size of the ANP, and the scale was adjusted from 1 km2 to 30 m. The current and future climate was estimated and the differences between the two were calculated. Various climate change scenarios were generated. Results for 2045-2069 indicate a decrease in precipitation between 18 and 52 mm for Pico de Orizaba, 61 to 99 mm for Nevado de Toluca and 27 to 38 mm for Volcan Nevado de Colima; increase in average annual temperature of 1.32 °C to 1.67 °C (Pico de Orizaba), 1.30 °C to 1.76 °C (Nevado de Toluca) and 0.91 °C to 1 °C (Volcan Nevado de Colima). Changes in temperature and precipitation could lead to more frequent forest fires, increased incidence of forest pests and reduced reload of aquifers.
Starting Page	514
Ending Page	537
Page Count	24
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
DOI	10.29298/rmcf.v9i50.255
Volume Number	9
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/remcf/v9n50/2007-1132-remcf-9-50-514-en.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://www.scielo.org.mx/pdf/remcf/v9n50/2007-1132-remcf-9-50-514.pdf
Alternate Webpage(s)	https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v9i50.255
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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