A Guiné-Bissau em face do processo de integração econômica e monetária na África ocidental: contemplando a integração regional como instrumento de promoção do desenvolvimento

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Djau, Mamadu Alfa
Copyright Year	2019
Abstract	The economic and social journey of Guinea-Bissau began very troubled even in the era of "colonization", with the greatest economic and social repercussions in the post-independence period, when it became a nationstate. These negative effects, motivated by the lack of investment in social areas and, above all, in basic infrastructure, in economic activities that generate employment, income, and the improvement of social conditions, led decision-makers to take a decision that could catapult Guinean socioeconomic development through integration in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). With this, the objective of this work is to analyze the effects of the WAEMU creation, observing its relevant consequences for the Guinean economy and its impacts on the socioeconomic development of this country. In order to achieve this objective, two methods were adopted: the first, which is bibliographical-documentary, sought to analyze the socioeconomic situation of Guinea-Bissau from the time of Portuguese presence until independence and in the period after independence until 2015; in the second method, the unbalanced panel structural and econometric gravitational model was applied, which sought to analyze the impact of WAEMU creation in general and in all its member countries, as well as its effects on the socioeconomic and commercial performance of Guinea-Bissau in particular, through gravitational variables. Finally, trade potential for the bloc as a whole was estimated, looking specifically at Guinea Bissau. The results showed that the approaches taken on the Guinea-Bissau route before and after independence provided an overview of their socio-economic trajectory since the period of Portuguese exploration. It was observed that during this period there was no interest in investments in basic infrastructures that could allow the country to sustain economic growth, nor significant initiatives of the gender in social areas such as health, education and basic sanitation. With regard to the study of the Guinean economy since independence, it was possible to see how the aforementioned lack of investment in the areas mentioned above had its consequences in the evolution of the economy of this country. The negative impacts of the great failures committed by successive Guinean governments were also noted, in not directing the investment sufficient for the sector's glimpse of its comparative advantage, that is, investment in agricultural mechanization and agribusiness. Concerning basic infrastructures, the development effects of Guinea Bissau, as a sovereign state, were nothing short of dramatic. With regard to the analysis of the economic and social performance of Guinea-Bissau in relation to the other WAEMU countries, it was verified that this country was in the last position of the ranking in more than 95 percent of the analyzed items. The econometric method applied to assist in the analysis of the WAEMU creation impact, produced expected results according to the assumptions applied, both for impact analysis in the bloc in general, showing that there was a considerable increase in trade after its creation, as in the impact analysis in individual countries. Concerning Guinea-Bissau specifically, there was a greater disagreement between the results found and the assumptions of the gravity model, once again showing the low economic and commercial performance of this country in relation to the other members of the bloc, because, by the results found, the country exports more outward than into the Union. As far as the estimation of the trade potential is concerned, it was verified that WAEMU has exceeded its trade potential predicted by the model over the 21 years analyzed. With regard to the analyzes made in the bilateral relations of trade between the bloc members, it was found that some countries are contributing in a greater scale to the commercial integration in the Union to the detriment of others. But despite this scenario, the gravitational model was able to show that there is still great potential for trade to be explored in bilateral trade relations in this African regional economic union. Finally, GuineaBissau has been experiencing a deficit of more than 90 per cent since joining the bloc in bilateral trade with its largest regional partner, Senegal.
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Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article