NDLI: Projecting Costs for Roads under Various Growth Scenarios

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Projecting Costs for Roads under Various Growth Scenarios

Content Provider	Semantic Scholar
Author	Reilly, James
Abstract	The State of New Jersey Office of State Planning (OSP) has developed a spreadsheet based computer model which allocates growth projections, estimates future incomes and housing needs by municipalities, and then evaluates the impacts of this future growth on several infrastructure systems. This paper describes the road impact model. The road model is based on detailed information, provided by the New Jersey Department of Transportation, which describes the supply of roads (lane-miles of roadway), by type of road, in each of the State's 567 municipalities. Rather than attempting to simulate future travel demands, the model is based on the assumption that the supply of roadway has been adjusted over time to meet the travel needs of the population. In fact, a very high correlation was discovered between municipal population density and the supply of roadways. Further analysis of this relationship led to the identification of adjustments for urban, suburban, and rural areas. Once future road needs were estimated, the model produces capital costs to build, but not acquire, the roadways. Because the model is sensitive to changes in municipal density it is useful for regional analysis, but can not be used to address sub municipal highway costs. Use of the model to analyze various regional planning scenarios has been encouraging. A test of a scenario in which future growth was redistributed to the more urbanized portions of a county generated capital cost savings of almost $100 million (13.5%) by the year 2010.
File Format	PDF HTM / HTML
Alternate Webpage(s)	http://www.state.nj.us/osp/doc/trd/roads.pdf
Language	English
Access Restriction	Open
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article

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