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Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Micro Evidence of a Survey at High-frequency and of Distributions
| Content Provider | Scilit |
|---|---|
| Author | Apokoritis, Nikos Galati, Gabriele Moessner, Richhild Teppa, Federica |
| Copyright Year | 2019 |
| Description | Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal We shed new light on the anchoring of long-term euro area inflation expectations since the crisis by using micro evidence from a new survey at high (weekly) frequency. We find that long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored to the ECB’s inflation aim, which has acted as a focal point. By contrast, we find no evidence that professional forecasts (reported by Consensus Economics) acted as focal points. But there are subtle signs of long-term inflation expectations not being perfectly well-anchored. Using measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey, namely uncertainty based on the full distribution, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5% and 2.5%, and the effect of short-term on long-term deflation risk, we find that long-term euro area inflation expectations have remained well-anchored, and have become better-anchored between 2011 and 2018. |
| Related Links | https://www.bis.org/publ/work809.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=3447331 |
| ISSN | 10914358 |
| e-ISSN | 15565068 |
| DOI | 10.2139/ssrn.3447331 |
| Journal | SSRN Electronic Journal |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV |
| Publisher Date | 2019-08-29 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal Mathematical Social Sciences Inflation Expectations |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Psychiatry and Mental Health |
