NDLI: Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia

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Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia

Content Provider	Scilit
Author	Lee, Sang-Hyop Kim, Jungsuk
Copyright Year	2016
Description	Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal Changes in the population age structure can have a significant effect on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenues and expenditures. For example, population aging will increase expenditures on the elderly while reducing potential growth and hence revenues. In this paper, we project government revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050. Using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set, we simulate the effect of both demographic changes and economic growth. Rapidly aging economies like the Republic of Korea; Japan; and Taipei,China, are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system. On the other hand, rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer economies with relatively young populations and still-growing working-age populations. Overall, our simulation results indicate that Asia’s population aging will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability, pointing to a need for Asian economies to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health.
Related Links	http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/182761/ewp-481.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=2811531
ISSN	10914358
e-ISSN	15565068
DOI	10.2139/ssrn.2811531
Journal	SSRN Electronic Journal
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publisher Date	2016-04-01
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary Fiscal Balance Fiscal Projection Population Aging Public Spending
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Psychiatry and Mental Health

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