NDLI: Surveying Business Uncertainty

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Surveying Business Uncertainty

Content Provider	Scilit
Author	Altig, David Barrero, Jose Maria Bloom, Nicholas Davis, Steven J. Meyer, Brent H. Parker, Nicholas
Copyright Year	2019
Description	Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year look- ahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began in 2014 and now covers 1,500 firms drawn from all 50 states, every major industry in the nonfarm private sector, and a full range of firm sizes. We use SBU data to measure expected future outcomes for the growth of sales, employment, and investment for each firm and the uncertainty surrounding those expectations. Mean expectations are highly predictive of realized growth rates in the firm-level data, and subjective uncertainty is highly predictive of absolute forecast errors. We also use the SBU data to produce a Business Expectations Index (first moment) and a Business Uncertainty Index (second moment) for the U.S. economy. In Granger causality tests, the Business Expectations Index has statistically significant predictive power for a range of prominent business cycle indicators. The SBU also includes special questions that elicit additional information, including the perceived effects of specific government policy developments on the firm’s decisions and outcomes.
Related Links	https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/200551/1/1668028298.pdf https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=3401842
ISSN	10914358
e-ISSN	15565068
DOI	10.2139/ssrn.3401842
Journal	SSRN Electronic Journal
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publisher Date	2019-05-27
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Journal: SSRN Electronic Journal Industrial Relations Business Uncertainty Subjective Forecast Distributions
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Psychiatry and Mental Health

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