Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992—2004 1

Content Provider	Scilit
Author	Garenne, Michel L. Tollman, Stephen Collinson, Mark A. Kahn, Kathleen
Copyright Year	2007
Description	Aims: To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS. Methods: A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. Results: The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992—2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010. Conclusions: The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.
Related Links	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2830107/pdf https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14034950701355650
Ending Page	76
Page Count	9
Starting Page	68
ISSN	14034948
e-ISSN	16511905
DOI	10.1080/14034950701355650
Journal	Scandinavian Journal of Public Health
Issue Number	69_uppl
Volume Number	35
Language	English
Publisher	Informa UK Limited
Publisher Date	2007-08-01
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Journal: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health Ethnic Studies Agincourt Demographic Transition Fertility Rate Fertility Trends Hiv/aids Net Reproduction Rate Replacement Fertility South Africa
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health