NDLI: A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches

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A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches

Content Provider	Scilit
Author	Fry, John Smart, Oliver Serbera, Jean-Philippe Klar, Bernhard
Copyright Year	2020
Abstract	Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches (applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.
Related Links	https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/journals/jqas/17/1/article-p67.pdf
Ending Page	75
Page Count	9
Starting Page	67
ISSN	21946388
e-ISSN	15590410
DOI	10.1515/jqas-2019-0088
Journal	Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	17
Language	English
Publisher	Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Publisher Date	2021-01-26
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports Operations Research and Management Science Football Poisson Distribution Rugby Union Soccer Sports Analytics Variance Gamma Distribution Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol- 17
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	3300/3301 1800/1801

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