NDLI: Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

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Pathways to democracy after authoritarian breakdown: Comparative case selection and lessons from the past

Content Provider	SAGE Publishing
Author	Lachapelle, Jean Hellmeier, Sebastian
Copyright Year	2022
Abstract	Mass movements that are able to overthrow a dictator do not always lead to democracy. Transition periods present narrow windows of opportunity in which activists face difficult decisions to build democracy and prevent authoritarian relapse. Existing scholarship offers limited guidance for pro-democracy forces because it focuses on unchangeable structural factors and cases with a known outcome. We propose an innovative approach for finding informative comparisons for ongoing transitions after authoritarian breakdowns. We quantify the similarity between all breakdowns caused by mass uprisings since 1945 based on their structural preconditions. We then apply our approach to Sudan’s ongoing transition and draw lessons from two similar cases: the Philippines in 1986 (successful democratization); and Burma/Myanmar in 1988 (failed democratization). Our analysis shows that structural factors are weak predictors of transition outcomes and that Sudan shares characteristics with cases of both failed and successful democratization. Therefore, democratic transition appears possible in Sudan.
Related Links	https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/01925121221138408?download=true
ISSN	01925121
Journal	International Political Science Review (IPS)
e-ISSN	1460373X
DOI	10.1177/01925121221138408
Language	English
Publisher	Sage Publications UK
Publisher Date	2022-12-15
Publisher Place	London
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	© The Author(s) 2022
Subject Keyword	Democratization authoritarian breakdown matching democratic transition mixed methods
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Sociology and Political Science Political Science and International Relations

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