NDLI: Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Tack, Ayco J. M. Mononen, Tommi Hanski, Ilkka
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0173
Starting Page	20150173
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09628452
e-ISSN	14712954
Journal	Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Issue Number	1806
Volume Number	282
Language	English
Publisher	The Royal Society
Publisher Date	2015-04-08
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	The Royal Society
Subject Keyword	Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) Immunology and Microbiology(all) Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all) Environmental Science(all) Medicine(all) Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Immunology and Microbiology Medicine Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences

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Data from: Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Dataset)

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Data from: Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Dataset)

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