NDLI: The construction of next-generation matrices for compartmental epidemic models

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Diekmann, O. Heesterbeek, J. A. P. Roberts, M. G.
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. The next-generation matrix (NGM) is the natural basis for the definition and calculation of ℛ0 where finitely many different categories of individuals are recognized. We clear up confusion that has been around in the literature concerning the construction of this matrix, specifically for the most frequently used so-called compartmental models. We present a detailed easy recipe for the construction of the NGM from basic ingredients derived directly from the specifications of the model. We show that two related matrices exist which we define to be the NGM with large domain and the NGM with small domain. The three matrices together reflect the range of possibilities encountered in the literature for the characterization of ℛ0. We show how they are connected and how their construction follows from the basic model ingredients, and establish that they have the same non-zero eigenvalues, the largest of which is the basic reproduction number ℛ0. Although we present formal recipes based on linear algebra, we encourage the construction of the NGM by way of direct epidemiological reasoning, using the clear interpretation of the elements of the NGM and of the model ingredients. We present a selection of examples as a practical guide to our methods. In the appendix we present an elementary but complete proof that ℛ0 defined as the dominant eigenvalue of the NGM for compartmental systems and the Malthusian parameter r, the real-time exponential growth rate in the early phase of an outbreak, are connected by the properties that ℛ0 > 1 if and only if r > 0, and ℛ0 = 1 if and only if r = 0.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0386
Ending Page	885
Page Count	13
Starting Page	873
File Format	PDF
ISSN	17425689
e-ISSN	17425662
Journal	Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Issue Number	47
Volume Number	7
Language	English
Publisher	The Royal Society
Publisher Date	2010-06-06
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	The Royal Society
Subject Keyword	Biotechnology Biophysics Biochemistry Bioengineering Biomaterials Biomedical Engineering Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Biochemistry Biomaterials Biophysics Bioengineering Biomedical Engineering Biotechnology

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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