NDLI: On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics

Content Provider	PubMed Central
Author	Bertuzzo, E. Casagrandi, R. Gatto, M. Rodriguez-iturbe, I. Rinaldo, A.
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection (Vibrio cholerae) is transported through the network links that are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of waterborne pathogens. Using the diffusion approximation, we analytically derive the speed of propagation for travelling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices (either one-dimensional or two-dimensional) endowed with uniform population density. Power laws are found that relate the propagation speed to the diffusion coefficient and the basic reproduction number. We numerically obtain the related, slower speed of epidemic spreading for more complex, yet realistic river structures such as Peano networks and optimal channel networks. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population sizes proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak time scales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR)-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, time scales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models.
Related Links	http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2009.0204
Ending Page	333
Page Count	13
Starting Page	321
File Format	PDF
ISSN	17425689
e-ISSN	17425662
Journal	Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Issue Number	43
Volume Number	7
Language	English
Publisher	The Royal Society
Publisher Date	2010-02-06
Access Restriction	Open
Rights Holder	The Royal Society
Subject Keyword	Biotechnology Biophysics Biochemistry Bioengineering Biomaterials Biomedical Engineering Research in Higher Education
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Biochemistry Biomaterials Biophysics Bioengineering Biomedical Engineering Biotechnology

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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