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| Content Provider | PubMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Lenton, Timothy M. Held, Hermann Kriegler, Elmar Hall, Jim W. Lucht, Wolfgang Rahmstorf, Stefan Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim |
| Abstract | The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points. |
| Related Links | http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 |
| Ending Page | 1793 |
| Page Count | 8 |
| Starting Page | 1786 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 00278424 |
| e-ISSN | 10916490 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Issue Number | 6 |
| Volume Number | 105 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| Publisher Date | 2008-02-12 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Rights Holder | National Academy of Sciences |
| Subject Keyword | General Research in Higher Education |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Multidisciplinary |
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