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| Content Provider | PubMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Williams, B. G. Granich, R. Chauhan, L. S. Dharmshaktu, N. S. Dye, C. |
| Copyright Year | 2005 |
| Abstract | Epidemics of HIV/AIDS have increased the tuberculosis (TB) case-load by five or more times in East Africa and southern Africa. As HIV continues to spread, warnings have been issued of disastrous AIDS and TB epidemics in “new-wave” countries, including India, which accounts for 20% of all new TB cases arising in the world each year. Here we investigate whether, in the face of the HIV epidemic, India's Revised National TB Control Program (RNTCP) could halve TB prevalence and death rates in the period 1990–2015, as specified by the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Using a mathematical model to capture the spatial and temporal variation in TB and HIV in India, we predict that, without the RNTCP, HIV would increase TB prevalence (by 1%), incidence (by 12%), and mortality rates (by 33%) between 1990 and 2015. With the RNTCP, however, we expect substantial reductions in prevalence (by 68%), incidence (by 41%), and mortality (by 39%) between 1990 and 2015. In India, 29% of adults but 72% of HIV-positive adults live in four large states in the south where, even with the RNTCP, mortality is expected to fall by only 15% between 1990 and 2015. Nationally, the RNTCP should be able to reverse the increases in TB burden due to HIV but, to ensure that TB mortality is reduced by 50% or more by 2015, HIV-infected TB patients should be provided with antiretroviral therapy in addition to the recommended treatment for TB. |
| Related Links | http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0501615102 |
| Ending Page | 9624 |
| Page Count | 6 |
| Starting Page | 9619 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 00278424 |
| e-ISSN | 10916490 |
| Journal | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
| Issue Number | 27 |
| Volume Number | 102 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| Publisher Date | 2005-07-05 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Rights Holder | National Academy of Sciences |
| Subject Keyword | General Research in Higher Education |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Multidisciplinary |
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