Loading...
Please wait, while we are loading the content...
Similar Documents
Conviction Narrative Theory: A Theory of Choice Under Radical Uncertainty
| Content Provider | PsyArXiv |
|---|---|
| Author | Johnson, Samuel Gregory Blane Bilovich, Avri Tuckett, David |
| Description | Conviction Narrative Theory (CNT) is a theory of choice under radical uncertainty—situations where outcomes cannot be enumerated and probabilities cannot be assigned. Whereas most theories of choice assume that people rely on (potentially biased) probabilistic judgments, such theories cannot account for adaptive decision-making when probabilities cannot be assigned. CNT proposes that people use narratives—structured representations of causal, temporal, analogical, and valence relationships—rather than probabilities, as the currency of thought that unifies our sense-making and decision-making faculties. According to CNT, narratives arise from the interplay between individual cognition and the social environment, with reasoners adopting a narrative that feels ‘right’ to explain the available data; using that narrative to imagine plausible futures; and affectively evaluating those imagined futures to make a choice. Evidence from many areas of the cognitive, behavioral, and social sciences supports this basic model, including lab experiments, interview studies, and econometric analyses. We propose 12 principles to explain how the mental representations (narratives) interact with four inter-related processes (explanation, simulation, affective evaluation, communication), examining the theoretical and empirical basis for each. We conclude by discussing how CNT can provide a common vocabulary for researchers studying everyday choices across areas of the decision sciences. |
| DOI | 10.31234/osf.io/urc96 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher Date | 2020-05-04 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Rights License | CC0 1.0 Universal |
| Subject Keyword | Social and Behavioral Sciences;Emotion;Social and Personality Psychology;Social Cognition;Industrial and Organizational Psychology;Organizational Decision Making;Consumer Psychology;Behavioral Economics;Cognitive Psychology;Reasoning;Judgment and Decision Making Behavioral Economics Causal Thinking Cognitive Science Decision-making Emotion Explanations Imagination Narratives Reasoning Social Learning Uncertainty |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Preprint |
| Subject | Social Sciences Psychology Social Psychology Experimental and Cognitive Psychology Applied Psychology |
