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Why isp = .90 better thanp = .70? Preference for definitive predictions by lay consumers of probability judgments
| Content Provider | Paperity |
|---|---|
| Author | Keren, Gideon Teigen, Karl Halvor |
| Abstract | What do people regard as an informative and valuable probability statement? This article reports four experiments that show participants to have a clear preference for more extreme and higher probabilities over less extreme and lower ones. This pattern emerged in Experiment 1, in which no context was provided, and was further explored in Experiment 2 within a positive and a negative context. The findings were further confirmed in Experiment 3, which employed a Bayesian framework with revisions of opinions. Finally, Experiment 4 showed how preference for high probabilities can lead people to prefer an overconfident to a more well-calibrated (accurate) forecaster. The results are interpreted as manifestations of asearch for definitive predictions principle, which asserts that high probabilities are preferred to medium ones and often favored over the corresponding complementary low probabilities on the basis of their capacity to predict the occurrence of single outcomes. |
| Starting Page | 191 |
| Ending Page | 202 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 10699384 |
| DOI | 10.3758/BF03196156 |
| Issue Number | 2 |
| Journal | Psychonomic Bulletin & Review |
| Volume Number | 8 |
| e-ISSN | 15315320 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer US |
| Publisher Date | 2001-06-01 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Experimental and Cognitive Psychology Arts and Humanities Developmental and Educational Psychology |
